CNN, Patrick Svitek: Michigan Democrats on Tuesday won a special election for a state Senate seat in another party over-performance after the district was almost evenly divided in the last presidential election.

Democratic firefighter Chedrick Greene defeated GOP lawyer Jason Tunney for a seat to determine whether Democrats would retain control of the state Senate. With an estimated 93% of votes in, Greene led Tunney by 19 points.

Michigan was one of the hardest-fought states in the presidential election and remains a top battleground in the midterms, home to competitive Senate and governor’s races. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state Senate district by less than 1 percentage point in 2024.

Chedrick Greene, Democratic candidate for 35th Senate District, takes a selfie with supporters after speaking Tuesday, May 5, in Saginaw, Michigan.  Paul Sancya/AP

Greene’s victory was the most recent example of Democrats exceeding their 2024 margins in special elections across the country, a trend that has them feeling upbeat about their chances in the midterms. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, said in a post on X Wednesday that the contest was a “massive defeat for MAGA Republicans” and that two vulnerable House Republicans from the state, Reps. Tom Barrett and Bill Huizenga, were “officially on notice.”

“We delivered this decisive victory by listening and speaking to the things keeping everyday people up at night — worries about affordability, safety, and freedom,” Greene said in his victory speech.

Tunney conceded the special election and said in a statement that it was “only the halfway point,” alluding to the fact that he and Greene could meet again in the November election. Michigan GOP Chairman Jim Runestad downplayed the national implications of the outcome, saying in a statement that Republicans were vastly outspent and that recent political trends in the state show there is “little correlation between special elections and General Election Day.”

The candidates in Tuesday’s contest were vying to fill a seat that has been vacant since its former occupant, now-Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, gave it up to enter Congress in January 2025. She campaigned with Greene, as did Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Greene ran on his background as a Marine veteran and fire captain, promising to lower the cost of living. One of his ads depicted him putting out a Dumpster fire tagged with the labels “higher rents,” “job loss” and “price gouging.”

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